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At some point you knew it would happen: The U.S. would draw into a Group of Death at the World Cup.
It finally happened on Friday as the No. 8-ranked Yanks were placed in Group E with three-time world champion Italy, the Czech Republic (ranked No. 2 in the world) and rising African power Ghana.
Even worse, the U.S. will have to face the Czechs first and Italy second, leaving the lower-regarded Ghanaians until the end.
The Italy matchup is the most intriguing in my mind because it offers a chance to see an Old Europe soccer power (the Azzurri) against a rising New World soccer power. Can the U.S. take out the three-time world champs when it counts? When they met in 1990 in Rome, Italy dominated and won 1-0. Can the Americans earn more bona fides from the world soccer community? Here's their opportunity.
Here are my instant reactions to the U.S.'s draw:
ITALY
FIFA ranking: 12
U.S. take: Of all the top seeds the U.S. could have drawn, I would have had Italy as the second-most favorable (after Spain). The Italians aren't quite the power they once were, but with standouts like Francesco Totti, Gianluigi Buffon and Luca Toni, they are a cultured, experienced team that will test the U.S.'s organization and toughness. One mistake against the Italians can mean disaster. Should also be fun to see the Italian press dissect Italian-American U.S. head coach Bruce Arena in the pink pages of La Gazzetta dello Sport.
GHANA
FIFA ranking: 50
U.S. take: Of the five African teams in the draw, Ghana was the one I rated the best. The Ghanaians have tons of talent led by Chelsea destroyer Michael Essien, and they were good enough in qualifying to keep 2010 World Cup host South Africa from making the field of 32. How soon will we start seeing news angles on Ghanaian-born Yank Freddy Adu, who's still hoping to make the U.S. team?
CZECH REPUBLIC
FIFA ranking: 2
U.S. take: Yikes. Only Holland would have been a tougher draw for the U.S. from Pot 3. The Czechs haven't been to a World Cup since 1990 (when Czechoslovakia waxed the U.S. 5-1), but they've been very good in recent European championships, reaching the semis in '04 and the final in '96. Pavel Nedved is one of the world's classiest central midfielders, and I can already see a fun matchup between gigantic forward Jan Koller and U.S. defensive stalwart Oguchi Onyewu. Opening against the Czechs reminds me a lot of the U.S.'s '02 opener against a highly-rated Portugal team. This time it's hard to believe the U.S. will be overlooked, however.
Other thoughts on the draw
• With four teams left to draw, I figured the U.S. had a 25 percent chance of being drawn into a tough group, and that's exactly what happened. Awfully unlucky, but that's what happens when only eight teams are seeded and there's so much variance in the draw possibilities.
• One good thing for the Americans: They don't play their first game until the fourth day of the World Cup, allowing nerves to settle and giving players a chance to see how games will be refereed.
• If the U.S. finishes in the top two of Group E and reaches the second round, it would face one of four teams from Group F: Brazil, Croatia, Australia or Japan. In other words, if the U.S. wants to match or improve on its quarterfinal run in '02, it should really hope to win its group. Otherwise, the likely second-round foe would be defending world champ Brazil.
• When I spoke to Arena last week, he pulled out his book on the '02 World Cup and read through the groups for me, asking me which teams I would have expected to come out. Then he reminded me which teams actually made it to the second round. His point: Don't leap to conclusions about anything.
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